Macroeconomic Weekly: Consumption is still depressed, and the construction industry continues to improve

This week, Guoxin high-frequency macro diffusion index A turned negative again, index B fell slightly, and the overall index value returned to the historical average level. From the point of view of the sub-item, this week all steel tire operating rate, PTA production have fallen, indicating that the current consumption is still strongly inhibited; However, the operating rate of coking enterprises, rebar production, and building materials composite index rose, indicating that the domestic construction industry production boom continued to pick up.

As of April 8, 2022, Guosen's high-frequency macro diffusion Index A was -0.1, Index B recorded 111.4, and Index C recorded -0.9%(-0.3pct.). Among the seven sub-items of the construction index, the operating rate of coking enterprises, the production of rebar, and the comprehensive index of building materials rose from last week; The operating rate of all steel tires, PTA production, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities, and the price of cement fell from last week.

Weekly price high-frequency tracking:

Both food and non-food prices rose this week. In April 2022, food and non-food prices were higher than seasonal or month-on-month. It is expected that the CPI food month-on-month is about 1.5% in April, the CPI non-food month-on-month is about 0.3%, the CPI overall month-on-month is about 0.5%, and the CPI in April this year rose to 2.3% year-on-year or significantly.

(2) In the first, middle and late March, the prices of means of production in the domestic circulation area continued to rise, bringing a larger positive month carry-over in April, and PPI is expected to maintain positive growth in April, driven by a high base, PPI in April may continue to decline to 7.6%.